Looking at the determinants makes one understand why the estimated recession likelihood is high. That said, aside from consumption, there’s been little sign of a recession in contemporaneous, hard-data indicators.
After a bullish month, it will be interesting to see how Monday will close. Probably March will close as a bullish; we have one more day in this month - Monday - to see how the price will behave.
Germany’s car industry is in the eye of the auto tariff storm. Stakeholders on both sides of the Atlantic must prepare for a period of uncertainty and increased costs.
If the feds were to achieve the objective — a lower dollar — consumer prices would rise. Wage earners would lose jobs (at least in the short-run). Investors would lose money in stocks.
Tesla gets a lot of attention for its autonomous driving software, but I see another company as the better opportunity for AI-powered cars in the long run.
The positives are elusive. The breadth indicators show the possibility of a serious decline in prices in the near future. But at least the bottom for this decline should be easy to identify by a sharp decrease in the number of new lows.
Bonds are very different from stocks. When you own a stock, you have an ownership stake in the company, and your fortunes are tied to those of the company. When you own a bond, you do not own a piece of the company. You are a creditor of the company.
The price of gold rallied sharply on Friday, as it hit a new record high of $3,086 amid uncertainty over US trade policy. Additionally, an uptick in the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge was seen.
